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Applicability and improvement of the Chicago storm pattern from the perspective of dimensionless storm curve shape and co-frequency probability of rainfall depths

Year: 2025
Type: article
Abstract: Design storm patterns are an important input condition for flood evaluation, and their applicability directly affects the accuracy of subsequent assessments. The Chicago storm pattern has a unimodal and sharp shape that does not align with actual storm events. This study uses the Spearman correlation coefficient, copula functions, and Bayes’ theorem to determine the applicability range of the Chicago storm pattern from the perspective of the dimensionless storm curve shape and the co-frequency probability of rainfall depths for different durations. Additionally, improved storm patterns are introduced. An empirical study is conducted on six cities in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin, China. The results show that there is a statistically significant correlation between the dimensionless storm curve shape and total rainfall depth. As the total rainfall depth increases, the rainfall distribution shifts to later periods and becomes more gradual. The Chicago storm pattern is unsuitable for heavy storm events with larger total rainfall depths. Given a threshold for the co-frequency probability of rainfall depths, the applicability durations of the Chicago storm pattern are calculated for different return periods. A longer return period corresponds to a smaller co-frequency probability of rainfall depths, and a shorter applicability duration. Compared with the Chicago storm pattern, the improved storm patterns better align with actual storms, can provide a more scientific basis for guiding investment decisions.
DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.103018
Authors: Wenbin Xu, Zheng Fang, Hanjie Zhou, Wentao Xu, Liang Lai
Language: English
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $2,600
OpenAlex ID: W7111024228
FWCI:
Cites: 46
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