Analyse en modellering van stedelijke ontwikkelingen en sociaaleconomische segregatie: een gevalstudie van Groot-Paramaribo, Suriname
Year: 2025
Type: dissertation
Abstract: Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) is among the most urbanised regions in the world, with over 80% of the population living in cities. While urbanisation contributes to economic growth, it can also exacerbate socioeconomic inequalities and spatial segregation. The region's colonial past, combined with contemporary socioeconomic and political factors, have resulted in persistent disparities among the population in housing, infrastructure, and access to essential services. In order to formulate effective policy interventions to address these inequalities, it is essential to first understand what drives them. Suriname, as part of LAC, shares many of these urbanisation challenges, particularly in the Greater Paramaribo Region (GPR). Despite the region's economic potential, inequalities in income, infrastructure, and access to opportunities persist, reinforcing patterns of exclusion. Moreover, climate change poses a growing threat to marginalised communities, exacerbating vulnerabilities already embedded in the urban fabric. This research aims to investigate the current and future interaction between urban growth, socioeconomic segregation, and climate sensitivity in the GPR, using a combination of spatial analysis and agent-based modelling (ABM). This research first examines patterns of urban growth using GIS-based analysis and remote sensing techniques. It shows that built-up area expansion in the GPR is largely characterised by peripheral expansion, which is influenced by the proximity of central urban services, transport infrastructure and real estate market dynamics. This spatial evolution has led to an urban landscape in which more affluent groups occupy well-served central areas, while lower income groups are increasingly forced into underserved areas. Based on this spatial perspective, the research then focuses on the nature of socio-economic and ethnic segregation within the region. By quantifying segregation, using indices and spatial clustering methods, it becomes clear that historical settlement patterns and contemporary housing policies have jointly contributed to a polarised urban structure. Marginalised communities, often intertwined with specific ethnic identities, are more likely to experience higher poverty levels and limited access to essential services, further widening the socio-spatial divide. The study then analyses how climate change is linked to urban growth and segregation. Vulnerability analysis indicate that groups are disproportionately exposed to climate disasters such as heat waves, flooding, and sea level rise. In many cases, inadequate infrastructure and limited adaptive capacity amplify the risks, underscoring the urgent need for urban planning approaches that integrate both environmental and social justice. To map the dynamic interactions of urban growth, an agent-based model is developed to simulate potential future scenarios. The developed model is based on the ASSURE (Agent-based Simulation of Social segregation and Urban Expansion) model. The model integrates residential preferences, relocation dynamics and spatial constraints based on observed trends in the GPR. While the model has limitations in predictive accuracy, it offers important qualitative insights into how household decisions and spatial structures interact over time. Rather than aiming to forecast exact outcomes, it is designed as an exploratory tool that helps to better understand complex urban dynamics and the potential direction of long-term trends. It simulates urban growth and evaluates the effects of policy measures such as densification, zoning, and infrastructure development on that growth, and on segregation. The results show that uncontrolled urban expansion increases socioeconomic inequalities, while strategic interventions such as improved access to amenities and reducing displacement pressures, promote more inclusive urban development. Ultimately, this research should contribute to the debate on urban inequality by highlighting the interdependence of segregation, climate sensitivity, and urban growth. The agent-based model offers policymakers a valuable exploratory tool to examine the potential impacts of interventions under different scenarios. Strategies that promote inclusive zoning, infrastructure investments, and climate adaptation are crucial for a more sustainable urban future. By addressing these challenges, urban policies in Suriname and similar contexts can contribute to the emergence of resilient cities that support social mobility and equity.
Source: Lirias
Author: Fung-Loy, Kimberley Stacy
Language: English
Topic: Latin American Urban Studies
Subfield: Urban Studies
Field: Social Sciences
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W7112008446
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