Work

Arctic cyclone activity changes under a warming climate

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: Arctic cyclones play a crucial role in regional climate and have important linkages to mid-latitude processes. However, their future changes and driving mechanisms remain uncertain. By applying Lagrangian tracking to CMIP6 models under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, this study projects future Arctic cyclone activity changes and quantitatively investigates the relative contributions of local cyclogenesis and externally migrating systems. By the late 21 st century, Arctic cyclone activity is projected to decline, with distinct seasonal and regional differences. Winter reductions stem from weakened local cyclogenesis, especially in the subpolar North Atlantic, while increased external migration intensifies cyclone activity in the Bering Sea and northeast Siberia. Summer declines result largely from reduced poleward intrusion of mid-latitude cyclones, particularly along continental margins. Yet increased cyclones around Greenland are driven by enhanced local cyclogenesis. These changes in local cyclogenesis and external migration are closely tied to variations in baroclinic instability and large-scale atmospheric flow patterns, respectively.

Source: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science

DOI: 10.1038/s41612-025-01296-2

Authors: Yue Chen, Yu Liang, Xianyao Chen, Haibo Bi

Institutions: Ocean University of China, Laoshan Laboratory, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Institute of Oceanology

Language: English

Topic: Climate variability and models

Subfield: Global and Planetary Change

Field: Environmental Science

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDG: Climate action

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $3,590