Development of a prediction model for recurrent vertebral fractures in patients two years after vertebral augmentation using noninvasive data: a retrospective study
Year: 2025
Type: article
Study design: Observational Study
Abstract: OBJECTIVES: By utilizing noninvasive data to analyze the risk factors for recurrent vertebral fractures in patients two years after vertebral augmentation and establishing a predictive model, the aim is to enhance the management of fragility fractures and reduce the incidence of postoperative recurrent fractures. METHODS: A total of 331 patients with osteoporotic fractures admitted to our hospital between January 2023 and December 2024 were selected as research subjects. The patients were divided into a refracture group (n = 85) and a non-fracture group (n = 246). The risk factors for osteoporotic fractures were analyzed using univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression, and a prediction model was established based on the identified risk factors. RESULTS: Among 331 patients diagnosed with osteoporotic vertebral fractures, 85 experienced new fractures, accounting for 25.68% of all fractures. Multivariate logistic regression analysis indicated that smoking, alcohol consumption, falls, anti-osteoporosis treatment, and muscle fat infiltration were significant risk factors for postoperative refracture (P < 0.05). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for the combined predictors was 0.947 [0.92, 0.975]. The Hosmer–Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test applied to the model yielded a chi-square value of 9.532, with a p-value of 0.299 (P > 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Smoking, alcohol consumption, falls, anti-osteoporosis treatment, and muscle fat infiltration are risk factors for recurrent vertebral fractures in patients within 2 years after vertebral augmentation. The construction of a prediction model can effectively predict the probability of postoperative recurrence of osteoporotic vertebral fractures and provide a reference for medical staff to identify high-risk patients with osteoporotic fractures and formulate effective intervention measures as soon as possible. CLINICAL TRIAL NUMBER: not applicable.
Source: BMC Musculoskeletal Disorders
Authors: Yulu Fan, Weifeng Ma, Tao Li, Yu Kong, Na Zou
Institution: Bozhou People's Hospital
Language: English
Subfield: Surgery
Field: Medicine
Domain: Health Sciences
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $3,090
OpenAlex ID: W7117544494