Work

Demand Response Potential Evaluation Based on Multivariate Heterogeneous Features and Stacking Mechanism

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: Accurate evaluation of demand response (DR) potential at the individual user level is critical for the effective implementation and optimization of demand response programs. However, existing data-driven methods often suffer from insufficient feature representation, limited characterization of load profile dynamics, and ineffective fusion of heterogeneous features, leading to suboptimal evaluation performance. To address these challenges, this paper proposes a novel demand response potential evaluation method based on multivariate heterogeneous features and a Stacking-based ensemble mechanism. First, multidimensional indicator features are extracted from historical electricity consumption data and external factors (e.g., weather, time-of-use pricing), capturing load shape, variability, and correlation characteristics. Second, to enrich the information space and preserve temporal dynamics, typical daily load profiles are transformed into two-dimensional image features using the Gramian Angular Difference Field (GADF), the Markov Transition Field (MTF), and an Improved Recurrence Plot (IRP), which are then fused into a single RGB image. Third, a differentiated modeling strategy is adopted: scalar indicator features are processed by classical machine learning models (Support Vector Machine, Random Forest, XGBoost), while image features are fed into a deep convolutional neural network (SE-ResNet-20). Finally, a Stacking ensemble learning framework is employed to intelligently integrate the outputs of base learners, with a Decision Tree as the meta-learner, thereby enhancing overall evaluation accuracy and robustness. Experimental results on a real-world dataset demonstrate that the proposed method achieves superior performance compared to individual models and conventional fusion approaches, effectively leveraging both structured indicators and unstructured image representations for high-precision demand response potential evaluation.

Source: Energies

DOI: 10.3390/en19010194