Work

Decoding booking cancellations: Quantitative insights and theoretical advances in tourism behavior

Year: 2025

Type: article

Abstract: This study investigates the determinants and timing of hotel booking cancellations through an integrative theoretical and empirical approach. Drawing on the theory of planned behavior, transaction cost theory, prospect theory, and strategic decision-making, we offer a comprehensive framework that explains both why and when cancellations occur. Utilizing a unique dataset of over two million hotel bookings from Mallorca, Spain (2021–2024), we apply time-to-event modeling and a linear probability model to explore cancellation patterns. Our results show that cancellation behavior is determined by a complex interplay of refundability terms, booking window, consumer nationality, travel party composition, hotel characteristics, and pricing dynamics. Findings reveal a non-linear (inverted U-shaped) relationship between booking window and cancellation likelihood, and highlight strategic consumer behavior around penalty windows and rebooking opportunities. This study contributes to tourism literature by combining theoretical depth with large-scale observational data to explain temporal and behavioral nuances in booking cancellations.

Source: Tourism Management

DOI: 10.1016/j.tourman.2025.105384

Authors: Vicente Ramos Mir, Bartolomé Deyá Tortella, Veronica Leoni, Juan Luis Nicolau

Institutions: Universitat de les Illes Balears, Virginia Tech

Language: English

Topic: Diverse Aspects of Tourism Research

Subfield: Sociology and Political Science

Field: Social Sciences

Domain: Social Sciences

Open Access status: hybrid

Estimated APC paid: $4,690

Funders: Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades, European Regional Development Fund, Agencia Estatal de Investigación