Using Deductive Logic Reasoning to Probe the Internal Data Accessibility of the Bat Sample Virus Database at WIV Regarding the Intractable 'Lab P vs. No P' Problem
Year: 2025
Type: article
Abstract: #Please follow link zenodo.org/records/18111819 for version 2. Fact: a junior graduate student (Yu Ping) was permitted to explore Ra4991/RaTG13 in the laboratory during 2018–June 2019. This warrants closer examination. Ra4991/RaTG13, sharing 96.2% overall genomic similarity with SARSCoV-2, was the only known member of SARS-CoV-2–related bat betacoronaviruses prior to the pandemic. Premise: in addition to Ra4991, the laboratory may have possessed a hypothetical precursor virus of one of two types: P_ (≥96% genomic similarity to SARS-CoV-2, lacking the PRRA insertion in the spike protein) and P_PRRA (≥96% genomic similarity with the critical Furin cleavage site PRRA insertion). Analysis and Results: Based on the internal open-access status of Ra4991, FOUR types of theoretical combinations of data accessibility for Ra4991 and P_ or P_PRRA were examined. • Scenarios in which both Ra4991 and P_ or P_PRRA were open-access did not occur. • Scenarios in which both Ra4991 and P_ or P_PRRA were restricted-access also did not occur. • The scenario in which Ra4991 was open while P_ was restricted cannot be determined; however, this uncertainty does not affect the logical conclusions, as P_ alone cannot spontaneously acquire the PRRA insertion to generate SARS-CoV-2. • Scenarios Ra4991 being open while P_PRRA or a P_PRRA_Lab (engineered virus on P_ backbone) was restricted. Considering relevant facts, scientific evidence, laboratory practices, and principles of Occam’s Razor, the most plausible conclusion is that these two scenarios are unlikely. In other words, if a high-risk precursor had existed, Ra4991 itself would have been placed under restricted access. The open-access status of Ra4991 therefore casts reasonable doubt on claims that the laboratory knowingly possessed a direct precursor of SARS-CoV-2 prior to June 2019. This analysis provides a novel contribution to the ongoing debate regarding the origin of SARS-CoV-2. #Please follow link zenodo.org/records/18111819 for version 2.
Author: Wo, Galen
Language: English
Subfield: Infectious Diseases
Field: Medicine
Domain: Health Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W7117887342
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