Engineering the Avoidance of Collapse: Early Warning Indicators and Safety Margins Across Domains
Year: 2025
Type: article
Abstract: "Like Mohawk ironworkers on early skyscrapers, these papers are written without guardrails. The danger is not falling — it is realizing how high you already are.”Across physical, computational, biological, economic, and social systems, collapse is commonly treated as a sudden or exogenous event. This paper argues the opposite: collapse is a predictable engineering failure mode preceded by the measurable degradation of a system's capacity to export accumulated incoherence. We introduce a domain-agnostic framework in which collapse is defined as the irreversible transition to equilibrium-dominated dynamics after sustained saturation of active negentropy throughput (Psi). We show that early warning indicators and safety margins already exist across various disciplines but remain fragmented and unnamed. By unifying these indicators under a common operational vocabulary—identifying the buildup of internal tension (aleph) and the saturation of discharge mechanisms (Psi)—this work enables the real-time detection of pre-collapse states. The paper provides practical design principles for collapse avoidance, shifting the focus from "shock resistance" to the maintenance of "functional discharge margins." We conclude that systems do not collapse because of large external errors, but because they have lost the structural capacity to process small, internal ones.
Author: Bresciano, Claudio
Language: English
Topic: Complex Systems and Dynamics
Subfield: Statistical and Nonlinear Physics
Field: Physics and Astronomy
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W7117900482
FWCI:
Cites:
Cited by:
Related to: