Simple analytical–statistical models (ASMs) for mean annual permafrost table temperature and active-layer thickness estimates
Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: A number of models have been developed for estimating the mean annual permafrost table temperature (MAPT) and active-layer thickness (ALT). These tools typically require at least a few ground physical properties as their input parameters in addition to air or ground temperatures. However, ground physical properties are frequently unavailable or unrepresentative and therefore need to be estimated, which introduces uncertainties into model outputs. Hence, we devised two simple analytical–statistical models (ASMs) for MAPT and ALT, which are driven solely by thawing and freezing indices from two depth levels within the active layer, while no ground physical properties are required. ASMs reproduced MAPT and ALT in the Earth's major permafrost regions with the total mean errors of less than 0.05 °C and 9 %, respectively. This is similar or better than other analytical or statistical models, which suggests that ASMs can be useful tools for estimating MAPT and ALT under a wide range of environmental conditions.
Source: The cryosphere
Authors: Tomáš Uxa, Filip Hrbáček, Michaela Kňažková
Language: English
Subfield: Atmospheric Science
Field: Earth and Planetary Sciences
Domain: Physical Sciences
SDG: Climate action
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $1,574
Awards: Soil Moisture Effects on Active Layer and Permafrost Dynamics in the Antarctic Peninsula, Determining the influence of frost heave and thaw settlement on the thermal regime of frozen ground and its implementation in freeze-thaw models, Dynamics of the periglacial environment in the Antarctic Peninsula region under ongoing climate change
OpenAlex ID: W7118286595