Detection of ozone recovery in the Arctic from ground-based measurements
Year: 2026
Type: preprint
Abstract: . Contrary to the Antarctic, where ozone recovery has been observed for about a decade, the detection of positive ozone trends in the Arctic remains challenging due to higher natural variability of ozone in that region. Using a merging of long-term ozone data from Fourier transform infrared spectrometers, ozonesondes, and Dobson and Brewer spectrophotometers, we present regional long-term trends (2000−2024) for total, stratospheric and tropospheric ozone. First, ground-based measurements are cross-compared to two satellite data sets (MEGRIDOP and IASI-CDR). This enables the detection of drifted ground-based data sets we further exclude from our study. We then use a representativeness study based on CAMS re-analysis data to define regions for which representative trends with reduced uncertainties are obtained by combining data sets from different instruments and stations. Annual and seasonal trends are calculated using a multiple linear regression technique involving a set of proxies that represent physical processes influencing the natural ozone variability. Annual trends indicate increasing total ozone over the Arctic, and are statistically significant over Canada and Reykjavik (+2.1 %/decade) and North-West Europe (Harestua and Lerwick, +0.7 %/decade). Ozone recovery is also observed over Canada in the mid-stratosphere (+2.0 %/decade) and over the North Pole region (Canada and Ny-Ålesund) in the upper stratosphere (+2.1 to +3.8 %/decade). By analysing the sensitivity of the ozone trends to the proxies, we observe a slow down of the expected ozone recovery, especially in the lower stratosphere, due to stratospheric cooling (-0.6 %/decade) and to the increase of volume of polar stratospheric clouds (-0.8 %/decade).
Authors: Caroline Jonas, Corinne Vigouroux, Bavo Langerock, Robin Björklund, Anne Boynard, Thomas Carlund, Martine De Mazière, Peter Effertz, Quentin Errera, Matthias Frey, James W. Hannigan, Nis Jepsen, Rigel Kivi, Norrie Lyall, Mathias Palm, Maxime Prignon, Viktoria F. Sofieva, Kimberly Strong, Tove Svendby, David Tarasick, Laura Thölix, Roeland Van Malderen, Yana Virolainen, Sibylle von Löwis, Xiaoyi Zhao
Institutions: Royal Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy, University of Antwerp, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines, Sorbonne Université, Collecte Localisation Satellites (France), Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, Laboratoire atmosphères, milieux, observations spatiales, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, NSF NCAR Atmospheric Chemistry Observations & Modeling, Danish Meteorological Institute, Finnish Meteorological Institute, Met Office, University of Bremen, Chalmers University of Technology, University of Toronto, NILU, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium, St Petersburg University, Icelandic Meteorological Office
Language: English
Subfield: Atmospheric Science
Field: Earth and Planetary Sciences
Domain: Physical Sciences
SDG: Climate action
Open Access status: gold
Award: G1133006735
OpenAlex ID: W7118610058
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