Work

Future wind energy potential for wind farm development in Africa based on bias-corrected NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 wind projections

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: This study enhances wind energy resource assessment under climate change by applying a robust bias correction framework to NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 projections for ten wind farm stations across Africa at 150-m hub heights. We assessed wind speed, wind power density, variability, and capacity factor under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios for 2041–2070 and 2071–2100. Model performance shows regional disparities, with higher accuracy in East and Southern Africa (correlations 0.86–0.96) than in North and West Africa (correlations 0.63–0.73). Baseline analysis highlights North Africa’s Sahara-Sahel and East Africa’s highlands as high-potential regions (6–8 m/s, 100–300 W/m 2 ), while Central and West Africa exhibit lower resources (1–3 m/s, <50 W/m 2 ). Weibull-based bias correction reduces errors to near-zero (±0.017 m/s), achieving correlations above 0.7 and up to 70% reduction in root mean square error (RMSE), with East African stations showing the greatest error reduction. Future projections indicate significant regional and seasonal variability. East African coastal stations (Lamu, Zanzibar) and selected West African sites project capacity factor increases over 30% and wind power density gains of 80–90% under SSP5-8.5, while North African stations face minimal or negative changes. Seasonal trends show West Africa’s winter gains (+23.5% wind speed, +90% power density) contrasted by autumn declines, and North Africa’s summer improvements offset by winter reductions. Wind speed variability decreases at some stations, aiding grid stability, but increases at others, requiring advanced forecasting. Exceptional winter capacity factor gains (>100%) highlight East and West African potential. This study provides guidance for wind farm site selection, supporting Africa’s renewable energy transition. • Bias-corrected CMIP6 enhances African wind projections at 150m hub height • East/West Africa project >80% wind power density gains under SSP5-8.5 • North Africa shows minimal/negative wind changes in future scenarios • Seasonal trends: Winter gains in West Africa (+90% power density) • Capacity factors rise >30% in East African coastal sites by 2100

Source: Cleaner Engineering and Technology

DOI: 10.1016/j.clet.2026.101145

Authors: Akinwale T. Ogunrinde, Paul Adigun, Dairaku Koji, Xian Xue, Syed Shameer, Salman Zare

Institutions: Chinese Academy of Sciences, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, University of Tsukuba, University of Tehran

Language: English

Topic: Wind Energy Research and Development

Subfield: Aerospace Engineering

Field: Engineering

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDGs: Climate action, Affordable and clean energy

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $2,220