Tumor control probability modeling of pulmonary metastases in oligometastatic head and neck squamous cell carcinoma treated with stereotactic body radiation therapy
Year: 2026
Type: article
Study design: Observational Study
Abstract: Background and Purpose Local control rates for pulmonary metastases from head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) treated with stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT) vary substantially in the literature, likely due to differences in the doses applied. This study, therefore, aims to develop tumor control probability (TCP) models. Methods Dose-time modeling of TCP was performed for three key dose descriptors: 3-fraction equivalent dose (3fxED) prescription dose, 3fxED planning target volume (PTV) D95%, and 3fxED PTV D2%. Each dose descriptor was stratified into 4 dose groups using a k-medians clustering algorithm, and the Kaplan-Meier estimator was computed in each group separately to enable time-dependent dose–response modeling. Logistic regression models were fitted using maximum likelihood estimation with model parameters determined separately for 1-year and 2-year local control. Results This retrospective multicenter analysis included 318 pulmonary metastases from 215 patients. The median 3fxED prescription dose was 45.0 Gy (IQR, 39.2–46.5), corresponding to a biologically effective dose (α/β = 20 Gy) (BED 20 ) of 78.8 Gy (IQR, 64.8–82.5). After a median radiographic follow-up of 13.3 months (IQR, 6.6–32.0), 21 local failures were observed. All models indicated a dose-dependent effect on the local control probability. A local control rate of 95 % was achieved at 1 and 2 years when 3fxED prescription doses and PTV D95% exceeded about 51 Gy (94 Gy BED 20 ), and when PTV D2% reached 66 Gy (139 Gy BED 20 ). Conclusion These TCP models suggest a dose-dependent probability of local control in pulmonary HNSCC metastases treated with SBRT and provide a basis for future clinical assessments in this population.
Source: Radiotherapy and Oncology
Authors: Felix Ehret, Jimm Grimm, Gopal Subedi, Samuel M. Vorbach, Viola Salvestrini, Ilaria Bonaparte, Ahmed Allam Mohamed, Sonja Adebahr, Anne Richter, Alexander Fabian, Thomas Weissmann, Justus Kaufmann, Sophia Drabke, Esmée Lauren Looman, Maria Waltenberger, Kim Melanie Kraus, Maximilian Grohmann, Andrea Baehr, Susanne Rogers, Ahmed Gawish, Jan-Niklas Becker, Rainer J. Klement, Richard Partl, Michael J. Eble, Anca-Ligia Grosu, Andreas Rimner, Eleni Gkika, Maike Trommer, Oliver Riesterer, Florian Putz, Ute Ganswindt, Christos Moustakis, Nils H. Nicolay, Thomas B. Brunner, Oliver Blanck, Pierluigi Bonomo, Andrea Wittig-Sauerwein, Panagiotis Balermpas, Franziska Nägler, Alexander Rühle
Institutions: Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Charité - Universitätsmedizin Berlin, WellStar Kennestone Hospital, Georgia Institute of Technology, Innsbruck Medical University, Universität Innsbruck, Azienda Ospedaliero-Universitaria Careggi, Universitätsklinikum Aachen, RWTH Aachen University, University of Freiburg, University Medical Center Freiburg, University of Würzburg, Universitätsklinikum Würzburg, University Hospital Schleswig-Holstein, SAPHIR Radiochirurgie, Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg, Universitätsklinikum Erlangen, University Medical Center of the Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz, University of Zurich, Paracelsus Medical University, TUM Klinikum, Ospedale di Bolzano, Azienda Sanitaria dell'Alto Adige, Technical University of Munich, University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf, Kantonsspital Aarau, Universitätsklinikum Gießen und Marburg, Medizinische Hochschule Hannover, Leopoldina Krankenhaus Schweinfurt, Medical University of Graz, University Hospital Bonn, University Hospital Cologne, University Hospital Leipzig, Leipzig University
Language: English
Subfield: Radiation
Field: Physics and Astronomy
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: hybrid
Estimated APC paid: $3,770
Award: G3876214404
OpenAlex ID: W7119468421