Work

Markets Mitigate Land‐Use Competition From Energy Crops and Increase Farm Revenues

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: ABSTRACT Meeting the US Sustainable Aviation Fuel Grand Challenge target of 35 billion gal annually by 2050 will require an estimated 380 million–700 million dry tons of agricultural biomass feedstock. This study evaluates the implications of large‐scale biomass production for land use, crop production, and market outcomes under mature market conditions. Results suggest that producing 476 million–843 million dry tons of biomass annually from agriculture would reduce cropland planted in corn, wheat, and soy by 8%–14%. However, convergence toward higher‐quality cropland raises per‐acre yields by 2%–9% relative to a business‐as‐usual baseline, limiting net production losses to 1%–3%. At the same time, farm market incomes increase by 20%–33%, whereas food price impacts remain below 1%. These findings indicate that substantial expansion of agricultural biomass for sustainable aviation fuel can be achieved with relatively modest impacts on food production and prices while also improving farm income.

Source: Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy

DOI: 10.1002/aepp.70051

Authors: Daniel G. De La Torre Ugarte, Matthew H. Langholtz, Chad M. Hellwinckel

Institution: Oak Ridge National Laboratory

Language: English

Topic: Bioenergy crop production and management

Subfield: Agronomy and Crop Science

Field: Agricultural and Biological Sciences

Domain: Life Sciences

SDGs: Zero hunger, Climate action, Affordable and clean energy

Open Access status: hybrid

Estimated APC paid: $3,750