Work

Atmospheric rivers increase global flood risk

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are narrow corridors of concentrated moisture known to distribute moisture globally and influence extreme precipitation events. However, the contribution of ARs to rare flood risk, the resultant hazard from extreme precipitation events, remains unquantified. Here, using 2686 largely regulation-free catchments across the world, we find that in some regions ARs are linked to over 70% of the largest precipitation and streamflow events. AR related precipitation significantly shortens the recurrence intervals of large flood events, making them 2–8 times more likely. In parts of Northern America, Europe and Australia, rare flood events are up to 12 times more likely when an AR is present. We conclude that ARs play a crucial role in increasing the frequency of extreme hydrological events on a global scale.

Source: Environmental Research Letters

DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ae362a

Authors: Sucheta Pradhan, Conrad Wasko, Murray C Peel

Institutions: The University of Melbourne, The University of Sydney

Language: English

Topic: Flood Risk Assessment and Management

Subfield: Global and Planetary Change

Field: Environmental Science

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDGs: Climate action, Clean water and sanitation

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $3,045