Work

Spatiotemporal changes of frozen soil layers during 1960-2021 and future prediction in Northeast China

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: Frozen soil is highly sensitive to climate change. However, the characteristics and long-term changes of both seasonally frozen ground and permafrost are seldom known. The object of this study was to explore the temporal characteristics and causal factors of frozen soil in historic (1960−2021) and future (2021−2100) periods under different climate scenarios (SSP119, SSP245 and SSP585) in Northeast China using Mann-Kendall (MK) test, Sen's slope method, freeze-thaw indices, surface frost number model, extreme climate indicators and Geodetector method. In seasonally frozen ground regions, the maximum seasonal frozen depth reached approximately 2 m in spring (March−May). For permafrost regions, the southern boundary shifted northward at a rate of 4.44 km per year, resulting in decreased permafrost areas from 5.56×10 5 km 2 in the 1960s to 2.05×10 5 km 2 in the 2010s. Under future climate warming, permafrost degradation will be further accelerated, driven primarily by extreme temperature indices rather than precipitation. Additionally, cropland expansion and intensified human activity further accelerate the degradation of frozen soil. This study provides insights into the spatiotemporal dynamics of frozen soil in Northeast China, which may inform future efforts related to ecological protection and land management in cold regions.

Source: Research in Cold and Arid Regions

DOI: 10.1016/j.rcar.2025.12.005

Authors: YuYu Zhai, HaiYan Fang

Institutions: Chinese Academy of Sciences, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences

Language: English

Topic: Climate change and permafrost

Subfield: Atmospheric Science

Field: Earth and Planetary Sciences

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDGs: Climate action, Life on land

Open Access status: diamond

Funder: National Natural Science Foundation of China