Real-Time UAV Flight Path Prediction Using GRU Networks for Autonomous Site Assessment
Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) have become essential tools across critical domains, including infrastructure inspection, public safety monitoring, traffic surveillance, environmental sensing, and target tracking, owing to their ability to collect high-resolution spatial data rapidly. However, maintaining stable and accurate flight trajectories remains a significant challenge, particularly during autonomous missions in dynamic or uncertain environments. This study presents a novel flight path prediction framework based on Gated Recurrent Units (GRUs), designed for both single-step and multi-step-ahead forecasting of four-dimensional UAV coordinates, Easting (X), Northing (Y), Altitude (Z), and Time (T), using historical sensor flight data. Model performance was systematically validated against traditional Recurrent Neural Network architectures. On unseen test data, the GRU model demonstrated enhanced predictive accuracy in single-step prediction, achieving a MAE of 0.0036, Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 0.0054, and a (R2) of 0.9923. Crucially, in multi-step-ahead forecasting designed to simulate real-world challenges such as GPS outages, the GRU model maintained exceptional stability and low error, confirming its resilience to error accumulation. The findings establish that the GRU-based model is a highly accurate, computationally efficient, and reliable solution for UAV trajectory forecasting. This framework enhances autonomous navigation and directly supports the data integrity required for high-fidelity photogrammetric mapping, ensuring reliable site assessment in complex and dynamic environments.
Source: Drones
Institutions: National Chung Hsing University, Bahir Dar University
Language: English
Subfield: Aerospace Engineering
Field: Engineering
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $3,137
OpenAlex ID: W7123531051