Percentile-based probabilistic optimization for systematic and random uncertainties in radiation therapy
Year: 2026
Type: preprint
Abstract: Geometric uncertainty can degrade treatment quality in radiation therapy. While margins and robust optimization mitigate these effects, they provide only implicit control over clinical goal fulfillment probability. We therefore develop a probabilistic planning framework using a percentile-based optimization function that targets a specified probability of clinical goal fulfillment. Systematic and random uncertainties were explicitly modeled over full treatment courses. A scenario dose approximation method based on interpolation between a fixed set of doses was used, enabling efficient simulation of treatment courses during optimization. The framework was evaluated on a prostate case treated with volumetric-modulated arc therapy (VMAT) and a brain case treated with pencil beam scanning (PBS) proton therapy. Plans were compared to conventional margin-based and worst-case robust optimization using probabilistic evaluation. For the prostate case, probabilistic optimization improved organ at risk (OAR) sparing while maintaining target coverage compared to margin-based planning, increasing average OAR goal fulfillment probability by 13.3 percentage points and reducing 90th percentile OAR doses by an average of 3.5~Gy. For the brain case, probabilistic optimization improved target minimum dose passing probabilities (e.g., 88\% vs.~22\% for $D_{95}$) and brainstem maximum dose passing probability (70\% vs.~30\%), while maintaining comparable or improved OAR sparing compared to worst-case optimization. Probabilistic optimization enables explicit and interpretable control over goal fulfillment probabilities. Combining full treatment course modeling with efficient approximate dose calculation, the proposed framework improved the trade-off between target coverage and OAR sparing compared to conventional planning approaches in both photon and proton therapy.
Source: arXiv (Cornell University)
Subfield: Radiation
Field: Physics and Astronomy
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W7124132243
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