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Temporal Cardiorenal Dynamics and Mortality Prediction After TAVR: The Prognostic Value of the 48–72 h BUN/EF Ratio

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: Background: Renal and cardiac dysfunction are major determinants of adverse outcomes following transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR). The ratio of blood urea nitrogen to left ventricular ejection fraction (BUN/EF) integrates renal and cardiac status into a single physiological index. This study aimed to evaluate the prognostic value of both baseline and temporal (48–72 h) BUN/EF ratios for predicting mortality after TAVR. Methods: A total of 429 patients (mean age 76 ± 8 years; 51% female) who underwent TAVR for severe aortic stenosis between 2017 and 2025 were retrospectively analyzed. The primary endpoint was long-term all-cause mortality; in-hospital mortality was secondary. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, Cox regression, and reclassification metrics (NRI, IDI) assessed prognostic performance. Restricted cubic spline (RCS) analysis explored non-linear associations. Results: During a median follow-up of 733 days, overall and in-hospital mortality rates were 37.8% and 7.9%, respectively. Both baseline and 48–72 h BUN/EF ratios were independently associated with mortality (HR = 3.46 and 3.79 per 1 SD increase; both p < 0.001). The temporal ratio showed superior discrimination for in-hospital mortality (AUC = 0.826 vs. 0.743, p = 0.007). Adding baseline BUN/EF to EuroSCORE II significantly improved model performance (AUC 0.712 vs. 0.668, p = 0.031; NRI = 0.33; IDI = 0.067). RCS analysis revealed a linear relationship for baseline and a steep, non-linear association for temporal ratios with mortality risk. Conclusions: The 48–72 h BUN/EF ratio is a robust dynamic biomarker that predicts early mortality after TAVR, while baseline BUN/EF identifies patients at long-term risk. Integrating this simple bedside index into risk algorithms may refine postoperative monitoring and improve outcome prediction in TAVR populations.

Source: Journal of Clinical Medicine

DOI: 10.3390/jcm15020676

Authors: Aykan Çelik, Tuncay Kırış, Fatma Kayaaltı Esin, Semih Babacan, Harun Erdem, Mustafa Karaca

Institutions: Izmir Kâtip Çelebi University, Izmir Atatürk Eğitim ve Araştırma Hastanesi

Language: English

Topic: Cardiac Valve Diseases and Treatments

Subfield: Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine

Field: Medicine

Domain: Health Sciences

SDG: Good health and well-being

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $3,137