Work

Modeling Reliability Quantification of Water-Level Thresholds for Flood Early Warning

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: This study proposes a framework, the RA_WLTE_River model, for quantifying the reliability of flood-altering water-level thresholds, considering rainfall and runoff-related uncertainties. The Keelung River in northern Taiwan is selected as the study area, and associated hydrological data from 2008 to 2016 are applied in the development and application of the model. According to the results from the model development and demonstration, the average and maximum rainfall intensities, roughness coefficients, and maximum tide depths exhibit a significant contribution to the reliability quantification of the estimated water-level thresholds. In addition, empirically based water-level thresholds can achieve the goal of rainfall-induced flood early warning, with a high likelihood of nearly 0.95. Additionally, the probabilistically based water-level thresholds derived from the described reliability can efficiently ensure consistent flood early warning performance at all control points along the river.

Source: Hydrology

DOI: 10.3390/hydrology13010030

Authors: Shiang-Jen Wu, Hao-Wen Yang, Sheng-Hsueh Yang, Keh-Chia Yeh

Institutions: National United University, National Yang Ming Chiao Tung University, Disaster Prevention & Water Environment Research Center

Language: English

Topic: Flood Risk Assessment and Management

Subfield: Global and Planetary Change

Field: Environmental Science

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDG: Clean water and sanitation

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $2,172