Work

Multi-decadal geodetic mass balance, climate sensitivity, and projected glacier response in the Chandra–Bhaga Basin, Western Indian Himalaya (1971–2100)

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: Glaciers in the Chandra–Bhaga basin, western Indian Himalaya, are critical to the cryosphere–hydrosphere system, yet their long-term climate responses remain poorly understood due to sparse in-situ data. Our geodetic mass balance assessment reveal substantial ice loss from 1971 to 2022, with glaciers shrinking by 0.72 ± 0.08 km 2 a −1 and losing mass at 0.26 ± 0.10 m w.e. a −1 . Debris-covered glaciers experienced greater ice loss (0.28 ± 0.10 m w.e. a −1 ) than clean-ice glaciers (0.20 ± 0.12 m w.e. a −1 ). CMIP6-based regression indicates modest pre-2000 loss, then average loss rates of −0.5 m w.e. a −1 until ∼2035, after which trajectories diverge depending on SSP scenarios. Temperature sensitivity is strongest in summer (−0.49 m w.e. a −1 °C −1 ) and weakest in winter (−0.38 m w.e. a −1 °C −1 ). Precipitation sensitivity is highest for winter and lowest for summer. ERA5 Land reanalysis-based sensitivities show annual temperature has stronger influence than seasonal, with lower magnitudes than CMIP6. Winter precipitation from ERA5 Land reanalysis data show stronger correlation to glacier mass gain compared to CMIP6. These differences emphasize uncertainty over which dataset better represents regional climate, particularly for temperature–mass balance relationships and winter precipitation that largely governs glacier accumulation. Despite this, sensitivities align with broader Himalayan trends. Projections suggest stable winter precipitation, combined with increased summer and annual warming, will accelerate mass loss through the 21st century. This study proves that long-term geodetic data can provide an alternative solution to understand glacier–climate interactions in data-scarce regions such as the Himalaya, enabling reconstructions, forecasts, and targeted adaptation for glacier-dependent communities. • Glaciers in Chandra–Bhaga Basin lost 0.26 ± 0.10 m w.e. a −1 since the 1970s. • Summer temperature has most significant control on glacier mass budget. • Rising temperature and declining winter precipitation accelerated mass loss. • Up to 70 % glacier volume may be lost by 2100 even under a low emission scenario. • Small glaciers (area < 0.5 km 2 ) may disappear before mid-century.

Source: The Science of The Total Environment

DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.181261

Authors: Atanu Bhattacharya, Ankita Paul, Kriti Mukherjee, Julekha Khatun, Sajid Ghuffar, Tobias Bolch

Institutions: JIS University, Cranfield University, Institute of Space Technology, Graz University of Technology

Language: English

Topic: Cryospheric studies and observations

Subfield: Atmospheric Science

Field: Earth and Planetary Sciences

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDG: Climate action

Open Access status: hybrid

Estimated APC paid: $4,250