Work

Localized Browning in Thermokarst-Dominated Landscapes Reverses Regional Greening Trends Under a Warming Climate in Northeastern Siberia

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: The response of Arctic vegetation to climate warming exhibits pronounced spatial heterogeneity, driven partly by widespread permafrost degradation. However, the role of thermokarst lake development in mediating vegetation-climate interactions remains poorly understood, particularly across heterogeneous landscapes of northeastern Siberia. This study integrated multi-source remote sensing data (2001–2021) with trend analysis, partial correlation, and a Shapley Additive Explanation (SHAP)-interpreted random forest model to examine the drivers of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) variability across five levels of thermokarst lake coverage (none, low, moderate, high, very high) and two vegetation types (forest, tundra). The results show that although greening dominates the region, browning is disproportionately observed in areas with high thermokarst lake coverage (>30%), highlighting the localized reversal of regional greening trends under intensified thermokarst activity. Air temperature was identified as the dominant driver of NDVI change, whereas soil temperature and soil moisture exerted secondary but critical influences, especially in tundra ecosystems with extensive thermokarst lake development. The relative importance of these factors shifted across thermokarst lake coverage gradients, underscoring the modulatory effect of thermokarst processes on vegetation-climate feedbacks. These findings emphasize the necessity of incorporating thermokarst dynamics and landscape heterogeneity into predictive models of Arctic vegetation change, with important implications for understanding cryospheric hydrology and ecosystem responses to ongoing climate warming.

Source: Remote Sensing

DOI: 10.3390/rs18020308

Authors: Ruixin Wang, Ping Wang, Li Xu, Shiqi Liu, Qiwei Huang

Institutions: Chinese Academy of Sciences, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences

Language: English

Topic: Climate change and permafrost

Subfield: Atmospheric Science

Field: Earth and Planetary Sciences

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDGs: Climate action, Life on land

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $3,258