Work

Exploratory analysis of periodic patterns in passenger aircraft orders and their associations with macroeconomic trends

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: Since the mid-20th century, global demand for air passenger transport has consistently increased, however, passenger aircraft orders have exhibited significant fluctuations. These fluctuations have imposed burdens on manufacturers, leading to instability and inefficiencies across globally integrated supply chains. This study applies Discrete Fourier Analysis and Cross-Correlation Analysis to passenger aircraft order data and global economic growth rates (1960–2020) to explore periodicity and macroeconomic associations. The results reveal a dominant cycle of approximately 8–10 years, consistent across aircraft types, and suggest synchronization with global economic growth patterns. These findings provide insights for long-term strategic planning in the passenger aircraft industries. • Fourier transform revealed periodic cycles in commercial aircraft orders, with 8–10‑yr pattern. • Trends correlated with economic growth rates.

Source: Research in Transportation Economics

DOI: 10.1016/j.retrec.2026.101715

Authors: Kazuaki Katagiri, Toshio Takiya

Institutions: Hiroshima University, Kanadevia (Japan)

Language: English

Topic: Aviation Industry Analysis and Trends

Subfield: General Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Field: Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Domain: Social Sciences

Open Access status: hybrid

Estimated APC paid: $2,430

Funder: Japan Society for the Promotion of Science