Work

Agronomic management drives the wheat yield plateau in high-yielding environments of northwest Europe

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: Northwest Europe experienced considerable increases in wheat yield until the mid-1990s, but no further progress was reported since then. Estimating the relative contributions of improved genetics, historical climate change, and agronomic management to this yield plateau is required to understand if yield increases are possible in future. Analysis of high-quality experimental data (1972-2013) revealed yield gains due to improved genetics of 90 kg ha-1 yr-1. Thus far, yield gains due to historical climate change (1972-2016) of 55 kg ha-1 yr-1 were estimated using a well-validated crop model. Given the absence of genetic and climatic yield ceilings, we conclude agronomic management is responsible for the yield plateau in Northwest Europe, constraining yield progress by 100 kg ha-1 yr-1 or more. Breaking the wheat yield plateau in Northwest Europe will require incentives for farmers to prioritize investments in wheat production over other, more profitable, crops.

Source: Nature Food

DOI: 10.1038/s43016-025-01286-w

Authors: João Vasco Silva, Bert Rijk, Herman N. C. Berghuijs, Allard J. W. de Wit, Pytrik Reidsma, Martin K. van Ittersum

Institutions: University of Hohenheim, International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center, Wageningen University & Research

Language: English

Topic: Climate change impacts on agriculture

Subfield: Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics

Field: Agricultural and Biological Sciences

Domain: Life Sciences

SDG: Zero hunger

Open Access status: hybrid

Estimated APC paid: $12,690