Predicting the current and future distribution of Helianthus tuberosus L. in China using the MaxEnt model under climate change scenarios
Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: Introduction: ) under climate change is critical for its conservation and sustainable cultivation. Methods: We utilized occurrence records (n=295) and environmental variables to model current and future distributions across China via a hyperparameter-tuned MaxEnt framework under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP126-SSP585, 2050s-2090s). Results: The model identified land cover (28.7%), vegetation index NDVI (23.7%), and minimum winter temperature (Bio6, 14.7%) as dominant drivers, collectively explaining 92.3% of distribution constraints. Currently, highly suitable habitats (6.03% of China's area) cluster in Yunnan, Guizhou, and central Jiangxi. Future projections indicate a 20.4% expansion of these habitats in northwest China due to winter warming, while southeastern coastal regions contract by 9.1% under extreme precipitation. The geographic centroid shifts 197- 238 km northwestward. Discussion: . These results prioritize conservation efforts and support strategic cultivation in climate-resilient zones.
Source: Frontiers in Plant Science
Authors: Yuying Liu, Qijun Zhao, Yanhong Dai, Yanjing Ren, Mengliang Zhao
Institution: Qinghai University
Language: English
Subfield: Ecological Modeling
Field: Environmental Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $3,801
OpenAlex ID: W7124914391