Integration of Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM) with GIS and Remote Sensing for Operational Forecasting in the Kırkgöze Watershed, Turkey
Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: Accurate snowmelt runoff prediction is critical for water resource management in mountainous regions where seasonal snowpack constitutes the dominant water supply. This study demonstrates operational application of the degree-day based Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM) integrated with Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and multi-platform remote sensing for discharge forecasting in the Kirkgoze Basin (242.7 km², 1823-3140 m elevation), Eastern Anatolia, Turkey. Three automatic weather stations spanning 872-m elevation gradient provided meteorological forcing, while MODIS MOD10A2 8-day composite products supplied operational snow cover observations validated against Landsat-5/7 (30-m resolution, 87.3% agreement, Kappa=0.73) and synthetic aperture radar imagery (RADARSAT-1 C-band, ALOS-PALSAR L-band). Uncalibrated model performance was modest (R²=0.384, volumetric difference=29.78%), demonstrating necessity of site-specific calibration. Systematic adjustment of snowmelt and rainfall runoff coefficients yielded excellent calibrated performance for 2009 melt season: R²=0.8606, correlation coefficient R=0.927, Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency=0.854, volumetric difference=3.35%. Enhanced temperature lapse rate (0.75°C/100m vs. standard 0.65°C/100m) reflected severe continental climate. Multiple linear regression analysis identified temperature, snow-covered area, snow water equivalent, and calibrated runoff coefficients as significant discharge predictors (R²=0.881). Results confirm SRM's operational feasibility for seasonal forecasting and flood warning in data-scarce snow-dominated basins, with modest requirements (daily temperature, precipitation, satellite snow cover) aligning with operational monitoring capabilities. The methodology provides transferable framework for regional water resource management in climatically-vulnerable mountain environments where snowmelt supports agriculture, hydropower, and municipal supply.
Source: Water
DOI: 10.3390/w18030335
Authors: Serkan Şenocak, Reşat Acar
Institution: Atatürk University
Language: English
Subfield: Atmospheric Science
Field: Earth and Planetary Sciences
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $3,137
OpenAlex ID: W7126043760