Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: Earth's Energy Imbalance (EEI) is a key metric to quantify climate change. While the ocean absorbs most excess heat, the atmosphere contributes only 1%–2% to the long‐term mean of EEI. However, our analysis of observational data demonstrates that variations in the atmosphere's energy content play a much larger role in interannual variations of EEI, especially in recent years. Including atmospheric energy uptake substantially improves agreement between observed variations in global net radiative flux at top‐of‐atmosphere (TOA) and ocean heat uptake interannually over 2005–2024. It also reconciles a delay between variability of these two quantities, with oceanic storage variability leading net TOA flux anomalies by ∼2 months. The phase shift can be explained by the atmosphere's important role in buffering and redistributing energy during El Niño – Southern Oscillation. The ability to robustly diagnose these relationships is owing to continuous efforts to monitor and improve estimates of the different EEI components.
Source: Geophysical Research Letters
DOI: 10.1029/2025gl119833
Institutions: University of Vienna, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Langley Research Center, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, University of Hawaii System, NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research, University of Washington
Language: English
Subfield: Global and Planetary Change
Field: Environmental Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $3,190
Awards: G3002215265, G5554449523
OpenAlex ID: W7126194236