Work

Simulated Changes and Future Analogy Extent of Ocean Heat Content During the Mid‐Pliocene Warm Period

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: In the present day, global oceans have absorbed most of the excess anthropogenic heat, abating surface temperature warming. The Mid‐Pliocene Warm Period (MPWP; 3.2 million years ago) offers an opportunity to understand how globally warmer climates store oceanic heat. We use the PlioMIP2 model ensemble to quantify global ocean heat content (OHC), defined as that in the 0–700 m fixed‐depth layer, and present an overview of the spatial characteristics of Indo‐Pacific OHC during the MPWP. Simulated MPWP OHC is globally higher than the pre‐industrial except for the Arabian Sea, which is attributed to weakened Northeast monsoon wind strength. The equatorial Pacific thermocline warms by 2°C from pre‐industrial to the MPWP without deepening. Globally, MPWP OHC exceeds the highest SSP5‐8.5 future scenario for the late 21st century (2081–2100), suggesting the ocean can absorb substantial amounts of heat, though the dynamics of heat uptake remain important given potential nonlinearities.

Source: Geophysical Research Letters

DOI: 10.1029/2025gl118840

Authors: Harry J. Grosvenor, Heather L. Ford, Chris M. Brierley, Charles J. R. Williams

Institutions: Queen Mary University of London, University College London, University of Bristol

Language: English

Topic: Geology and Paleoclimatology Research

Subfield: Atmospheric Science

Field: Earth and Planetary Sciences

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDGs: Climate action, Life below water

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $3,190