Work

Fiscal capacity and capital misallocation: the economic costs of tax evasion

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: This paper examines developing countries’ low administrative capacity to enforce uniform tax rates across space as a driver of capital allocation and a cause of low productivity. We rely on the Golden Tax Project, an information technology reform in China that eliminates the need for local tax-enforcing agencies to verify firm sales and purchases through onsite inspections, as a natural experiment to study the effects of fiscal capacity on firms’ location and capital allocation decisions. Exploiting the heterogeneous shocks that the reform exerts on the fiscal capacity of Chinese counties with different geographic ruggedness, we find that the Golden Tax Project significantly leveled effective tax rates across Chinese counties, which caused capital to relocate out of counties that experienced a bigger fiscal capacity boost after the reform. Such cross-county capital reallocation significantly equalized the marginal product of capital across firms and caused a rightward shift in productivities among them.

Source: Journal of Public Economics

DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2026.105581

Authors: Yu Liu, Xiaoxue Zhao

Institutions: Fudan University, Wesleyan University

Language: English

Topic: Taxation and Compliance Studies

Subfield: Economics and Econometrics

Field: Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Domain: Social Sciences

SDGs: Peace, justice, and strong institutions, Decent work and economic growth

Open Access status: hybrid

Estimated APC paid: $4,510