Skill Substitution, Expectations, and the Business Cycle
Year: 2026
Type: preprint
Study design: Observational Study
Abstract: This paper studies how labor market conditions around high school graduation affect postsecondary skill investments. Using administrative data on more than six million German graduates from 1995-2018, and exploiting deviations from secular state-specific trends, I document procyclical college enrollment. Cyclical increases in unemployment reduce enrollment at traditional universities and shift graduates toward vocational colleges and apprenticeships.
Source: Econstor (Econstor)
Author: Leibing, Andreas
Institution: Technische Universität Dresden
Language: English
Subfield: Economics and Econometrics
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W7127416364
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