Work

Gastric Cancer Mortality-to-Incidence Ratios in Latin America and the Caribbean: A Machine Learning Analysis of Socioeconomic and Clinical Research Predictors

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: PURPOSE: To characterize gastric cancer epidemiology in Latin America and the Caribbean, identify country-level predictors of the mortality-to-incidence ratio (MIR), and describe the clinical research landscape with emphasis on precision oncology (PO). METHODS: We conducted a retrospective, country-level study integrating GLOBOCAN 2022 incidence and mortality data, ClinicalTrials.gov records (2004-2025), and socioeconomic indicators (United Nations Development Program Human Development Index [HDI] 2023 and current health expenditure). MIR was calculated per country. Precision-oncology studies were flagged by a curated drug dictionary applied to the Interventions field; country involvement was measured as country-study participations. Analyses included geospatial mapping, Spearman correlation, ordinary least squares regression, K-Means clustering (k = 3), and a Random Forest classifier for feature ranking and discrimination. RESULTS: < .001); the association with number of trials was weak (ρ = -0.09). Three regional archetypes were identified. The Random Forest model achieved an AUC of 0.94 and ranked HDI as the top predictor. Of the 105 studies, 81 were interventional; phase III accounted for 40.7% and phase II for 30.9%. Country-study participations were concentrated in Brazil (23.4%), Chile (19.1%), and Argentina (15.2%). In PO, participation was dominated by Brazil, Chile, Argentina, and Mexico (72.2% of 140 participations), mostly involving trastuzumab, pembrolizumab, ramucirumab, and nivolumab. CONCLUSION: Socioeconomic context was more associated with outcomes than research volume. Regional research remains concentrated and drug-limited, supporting policies to strengthen diagnostics, access, and equitable clinical investigation.

Source: JCO Global Oncology

DOI: 10.1200/go-25-00531

Authors: Daniel F. Pilco-Janeta, Myriam De la Cruz-Puebla, Daisy R. Guamán-Pilco, Anthony D. Moyolema-Pilco, Diego Montenegro, William Miranda