Work

Overestimation of multiple myeloma survival from cancer registry data

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) multiple myeloma survival statistics (https://seer.cancer.gov/statfacts/html/mulmy.html) that have been used to guide multiple myeloma management and control have been systematically overestimated because of the inclusion of smoldering multiple myeloma, a premalignant condition of multiple myeloma. Using the latest SEER release, we estimated the extent of such overestimation in the survival statistics. In 2016, 77.9% of 5495 patients reported as overall multiple myeloma were symptomatic multiple myeloma, and 10.9% were smoldering multiple myeloma. Median survival was 65.8 months for overall multiple myeloma vs 56.8 months for symptomatic multiple myeloma (P < .001). Inclusion of smoldering multiple myeloma overestimated multiple myeloma survival by 9 months. Five-year relative survival estimates from 2015 to 2021 were 61.6% for overall multiple myeloma, 57.9% for symptomatic multiple myeloma, and 88.3% for smoldering multiple myeloma vs SEER’s reported 62.4%. Survival statistics for symptomatic multiple myeloma and smoldering multiple myeloma should be reported separately to guide multiple myeloma management and prevention at the population level.

Source: JNCI Journal of the National Cancer Institute

DOI: 10.1093/jnci/djag028