Defense Platform Vulnerability Assessment: Quantifying Rare Earth Supply Chain Risks Across Major Weapons Systems
Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: The United States defense industrial base faces an unprecedented strategic vulnerability arising from its critical dependence on rare earth elements (REEs) for advanced weapons systems, combined with China's near-monopolistic control of global REE supply chains. Despite controlling only 38% of global REE reserves, China dominates 68.75% of REE mining, 90% of processing capacity, and 99% of heavy rare earth element (HREE) processing—materials essential for the permanent magnets, guidance systems, and electronic warfare capabilities that define modern military superiority. The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) of 4,954 for global REE processing indicates a highly concentrated, monopolistic market structure far exceeding the 2,500 threshold for concern. This quantitative study addressed a critical gap in defense planning by developing and applying a composite vulnerability assessment framework to evaluate REE supply chain risks across 15 major U.S. weapons systems spanning five platform categories: Air (F-35 Lightning II, F-22 Raptor, B-21 Raider, KC-46 Pegasus), Naval (Virginia-class submarine, Columbia-class submarine, DDG-51 destroyer, CVN-78 carrier), Ground (M1 Abrams, JLTV), Munitions (Tomahawk, JDAM, AIM-120 AMRAAM, Patriot), and UAV (Predator/Reaper). The vulnerability index formula V = w₁(REE_content) × w₂(element_criticality) × w₃(1-substitutability) × w₄(strategic_importance) × w₅(1-stockpile_coverage) was applied across three disruption scenarios: Graduated Export Restrictions, Complete HREE Embargo, and Conflict-Induced Supply Cessation. Results revealed naval platforms exhibited the highest category vulnerability (M = 0.7814), with the CVN-78 Ford-class carrier ranking most vulnerable (V = 0.915), followed by Columbia-class (V = 0.793) and Virginia-class submarines (V = 0.743). Ground platforms demonstrated the lowest vulnerability (M = 0.370). Element criticality emerged as the strongest vulnerability driver (r = 0.91), while stockpile coverage provided the strongest protective effect (r = -0.93). Scenario analysis demonstrated that mean platform vulnerability increased from baseline (M = 0.608) by 6.3% under graduated restrictions, 12.2% under HREE embargo, and 22.5% under conflict-induced cessation. These findings provide defense planners with an empirically-grounded framework for prioritizing supply chain mitigation investments, informing strategic stockpile decisions, and guiding industrial base policy to enhance national security resilience. Keywords: rare earth elements, supply chain vulnerability, defense platforms, critical minerals, national security, China, permanent magnets, strategic materials, quantitative risk assessment
Author: Pokorny, Laszlo
Language: English
Subfield: Mechanical Engineering
Field: Engineering
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W7128496080