Work

Incorporating temperature-adapted growing periods enhances simulation of crop yield sensitivity to temperature in global gridded crop models

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: • The GGCM ensembles were optimized against statistically-inferred S T by Bayesian Model Averaging. • The GGCM ensembles assuming cultivar adaptation show better fit to statistically-inferred S T . • The GGCMs may overestimate maize S T while underestimate rice/wheat S T . • It’s essential to adopt dynamic phenological parameters in real-world S T estimation. • (GGCM = Global Gridded Crop Model; S T = crop yield sensitivity to 1 K warming) Global Gridded Crop Models (GGCMs) have been widely used to simulate the impacts of global warming on crop production, but their accuracy in capturing the real-world temperature sensitivity of crop yields remains unclear. Here, we evaluated the performance of eight GGCM emulators (incorporating versus not incorporating cultivar adaptation of crop growing periods at 0.5° × 0.5° resolution) in modelling yield sensitivities to 1 K temperature increase ( S T ) and optimized their ensembles against statistically-inferred S T for maize, rice, and wheat using a Bayesian Model Averaging approach. Our results suggest that multi-GGCM ensembles assuming a fixed crop growing period (i.e., a gradually temperature-adapted crop cultivar) show higher goodness-of-fit to statistically-inferred S T than those assuming a temperature-sensitive growing period for the crops in major food-producing countries. When setting a temperature-adapted growing period instead of a temperature-sensitive growing period in the GGCM ensembles, the R 2 between GGCM-simulated and statistically-inferred S T increased from 0.63 to 0.81 for maize, 0.28 to 0.52 for rice, and 0.40 to 0.85 for wheat, meanwhile the RMSE was reduced for all three crops across their respective top 20 producing countries. The crop models may exaggerate historical responses of crop growing periods to climate warming, resulting in an overestimation of yield S T for maize and an underestimation of yield S T for rice and wheat in major food-producing countries. The study highlights the importance of adopting dynamic phenological parameters in GGCM simulations to reflect crop cycle adaptation under global warming.

Source: Geography and sustainability

DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2026.100430