An analytically tractable non-autonomous logistic population model with autonomously evolving coefficients
Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: In this paper, we extend the classical logistic law by incorporating autonomously evolving, time-dependent coefficients that allow both the intrinsic growth rate \(\gamma(t)\) and the carrying capacity \(K(t)\) to vary over time according to logistic modulated dynamics. In particular, the carrying capacity is modeled as a logistic process with intrinsic growth rate \(\alpha\) and saturation parameter \(\beta\), yielding an asymptotic level of \(\frac{\alpha}{\beta}\). The objective is to investigate how temporal variability in the governing coefficients influences both transient and asymptotic regimes of the population dynamics and to assess the extent to which the system behavior can be controlled through a reduced set of key parameters. Analytical results are derived in closed form, expressed in terms of hypergeometric functions, and compared with numerical integrations for validation purposes. It is shown that the model admits a long-term equilibrium determined by the ratio \(\frac{\alpha}{\beta}\), independently of the initial population size \(S_0\), while short- and medium-term dynamics are strongly shaped by the interplay between \(S_0\) and the non-autonomous logistic evolution of the carrying capacity \(K(t)\). These results illustrate how analytically tractable non-autonomous logistic models with internally generated coefficient trajectories can enhance the qualitative understanding of population dynamics and provide reliable benchmarks for numerical simulations, with potential applications in sustainable resource management, aquaculture, and ecological modeling.
Authors: Antonio E. Bargellini, Daniele Ritelli
Institution: University of Bologna
Language: English
Field: Medicine
Domain: Health Sciences
Open Access status: diamond
OpenAlex ID: W7128628872
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