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The end of the garden path? Analyzing smallholder tobacco farming income and decision-making in Mozambique

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: Many government sectors view tobacco growing to hold significant economic value for smallholder farmers, a narrative driving policy and practice. Corresponding to this narrative, there has been a marked increase in land allocated to leaf production and cigarette manufacturing. We tested this narrative in Mozambique by quantifying the economic net income of smallholder tobacco growers (n = 1 315 households) in four major tobacco growing districts and compared income across four groups of tobacco farmers; persistent growers; persistent non-growers; new growers; and no-longer growers using panel survey data collected in 2019/2020 and 2020/2021. Overall, the economic net income was higher amongst those who were no-longer growers and non-growers. Relative to those who cultivated tobacco in 2020 but decided not to grow in 2021, a partnership contract with a leaf-buying company was strongly associated with continued growing of tobacco. The second factor associated with tobacco cultivation in both years was farmers’ use of hired labor, which is likely a function of the high labor intensity of the crop. These facts are important to inform further discussions on policy and programming pertaining to more robust rural livelihoods in Mozambique. These findings are consistent with a burgeoning literature from countries in Africa. Not applicable. Tobacco growing has been viewed as a lucrative crop for smallholder farmers by governments as reflected by their prioritization of tobacco in development plans. The evidence supporting this view is often limited or non-existent. This study finds that persistent growers and new growers showed a reliance on tobacco revenue, but this appeared to come at the expense of other diversified income streams. It also finds that the highest economic net incomes were found among households that had either exited the tobacco sector (Group B: 57,082 MZN) or never entered it (Group D: 52,369 MZN). Relative to those who exited tobacco growing, partnership contracts remained the strongest predictor of persistence in tobacco growing (RRR = 13.47, p < 0.001). This suggests that structural credit-for-input schemes may structure a path dependency that makes exiting the sector economically difficult. A central finding of this study confirms the findings from other studies in the region that tobacco revenue is largely an illusion created by the exclusion of labor costs.

Source: Globalization and Health

DOI: 10.1186/s12992-026-01195-y

Authors: Benedito Cunguara, Adam Silbuwe, Jeffrey Drope, Raphael Lencucha

Institutions: Eduardo Mondlane University, University of Zambia, Johns Hopkins University, McGill University

Language: English

Topic: Agricultural Innovations and Practices

Subfield: General Agricultural and Biological Sciences

Field: Agricultural and Biological Sciences

Domain: Life Sciences

SDGs: Decent work and economic growth, No poverty, Zero hunger

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $3,190