Work

Why COVID-19 vaccination cannot be ruled out as an explanation for all-cause excess mortality in the pandemic’s aftermath: A population-level study of over 3,000 US counties with over 320 million people

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: Background Research has shown consistent excess all-cause mortality since the COVID-19 pandemic, but without a clear explanation. In parallel, research has shown side effects from COVID-19 vaccination and increased deaths. Therefore, one cannot rule out COVID-19 vaccination as an explanation for the excess mortality. Methods US county-level data were used to model 2022 and 2023 all-cause excess mortality as dependent variables and per capita COVID-19 vaccine uptake at the end of 2021 and 2022 as independent variables. I included lagged dependent variables as controls. The data include over 3,000 US counties. Results A one-unit increase in per-capita vaccination uptake was significantly associated with a .042 (95% CI: .030–.055) increase in 2022 all-cause excess mortality, and significantly associated with a.030 (95% CI: .024–.036) increase in 2023. Conclusions COVID-19 vaccine uptake was significantly positively associated with all-cause excess mortality. Given the time asymmetry between vaccine uptake and all-cause excess mortality, the inclusion of lagged dependent variables as controls, and the large number of observations, the study has strong internal validity.

Source: F1000Research

DOI: 10.12688/f1000research.177279.1

Author: Jarle Aarstad

Institution: Western Norway University of Applied Sciences

Language: English

Topic: Vaccine Coverage and Hesitancy

Subfield: Health

Field: Social Sciences

Domain: Social Sciences

SDG: Good health and well-being

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $1,350