Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: Understanding how marine habitats are changing with a warming Arctic is essential for conservation, management, and adaptation strategies bearing tangible consequences for Arctic communities and ecosystems. Ringed seals and bearded seals rely on specific ice and snow conditions to support critical life history events affecting survival and reproduction. Here, we develop a panarctic habitat suitability model linking life events and environmental conditions. With Earth System Models, we simulate habitat over 1850-2100, revealing a relatively stable past habitat contrasting with rapid regional shifts in contemporary simulations and future projections. Core historical habitats are projected to decline, but two regions arise as potential refugia-the East Siberian Sea and Canadian Arctic Archipelago-that could support ice seal populations towards 2100. These findings underscore the importance of refined monitoring and regional conservation strategies for ringed and bearded seals, and their unique ecosystem.
Source: Global Change Biology
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.70735
Authors: Patrick Farnole, Steven H. Ferguson, Antoine Haddon, Ellen V. Lea, Adam H. Monahan, Nadja Steiner
Institutions: University of Victoria, Fisheries and Oceans Canada
Language: English
Subfield: Ecology
Field: Environmental Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: hybrid
Estimated APC paid: $4,550
Awards: G1603056188, G434337789, G5927809254, Climate relevant interactions and feedbacks: the key role of sea ice and snow in the polar and global climate system, Modelling marine ecosystem health and fisheries in the changing Arctic Ocean, Advanced methods for depth-based human pose estimation and motion analysis: application to vital signs monitoring in the intensive care unit
OpenAlex ID: W7128768534