Climate and land-use interactions shape the future of an endangered butterfly in a warming world
Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: Climate change has significantly impacted butterfly distributions in recent decades, and its influence is expected to increase with ongoing global warming. Despite these projected changes, few studies have used high-resolution, spatially explicit environmental data to predict future butterfly distributions. We used such data for the first time to model the occurrence probability of the endangered butterfly Brintesia circe under current and future climatic conditions in the federal state of Baden-Württemberg. A total of 364 spatially precise species records were compiled from various sources. To correct for sampling bias, a spatial thinning of presence points was applied.Species distribution modelling was conducted with MaxEnt using two types of environmental data: (1) 28 climate variables (1 km × 1 km) for 1991–2020, including projections for 2050 under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5; (2) fine-scale surface data (25 m × 25 m) including a digital elevation model and land-use layers.Under current climate, suitable habitat is limited and patchy, covering 352 km² with a suitability of ≥0.5. Key climatic predictors were winter precipitation, maximum winter temperature, and autumn solar radiation, while important land-use variables included meadows, protected areas, and vineyards.Under both climate scenarios, suitable habitat area increases substantially, to 2,027 km² (+476%) under RCP 4.5 and 2,585 km² (+634%) under RCP 8.5, likely due to the spread of Bromus erectus, the caterpillar’s main food plant. Our results suggest that B. circe could benefit from climate change if suitable grasslands and protected areas remain available and well-managed.
Source: Climate Change Ecology
Institution: Rottenburg University of Applied Forest Sciences
Language: English
Subfield: Ecological Modeling
Field: Environmental Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
SDGs: Climate action, Life on land
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $1,630
OpenAlex ID: W7128785984