Work

Evolutionary Game Analysis of Low-Carbon Transition in the Steel Industry Under Demand-Side Constraints: A Simulation Based on Empirical Data

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: Under the constraints of China’s “Dual Carbon” targets, promoting green consumption has emerged as a critical market-based strategy to drive industrial decarbonization and achieve sustainable development. However, the existing literature primarily focuses on supply-side government regulation, leaving the mechanism of how demand-side constraints influence the strategic interaction between the government and enterprises under-explored. To bridge this gap, this paper constructs an evolutionary game model incorporating performance-based government incentives, consumer low-carbon preferences, and corporate abatement costs. Unlike theoretical models with hypothetical parameters, this study calibrates the simulation parameters using empirical data from the steel industry in Zhejiang Province, a pilot zone for China’s ecological civilization construction. The simulation results indicate that: First, under the current empirical parameters, the system fails to spontaneously converge to the ideal equilibrium state, highlighting a “governance deadlock”; second, consumer preference intensity serves as a vital external force that can effectively break this deadlock and reduce the government’s regulatory burden; and finally, sensitivity analysis reveals the critical thresholds for the synergistic effect between regulatory policies and market demand. Based on these findings, policy recommendations are proposed to foster a collaborative governance mechanism integrating government guidance, market-driven approaches, and demand-side driving forces.

Source: Sustainability

DOI: 10.3390/su18041951

Authors: Yang Miao, Yu-Le Tian, Qin-Yu Chen, Xin-Qi Yu

Institution: Zhejiang University of Technology

Language: English

Topic: Climate Change Policy and Economics

Subfield: Economics and Econometrics

Field: Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Domain: Social Sciences

SDGs: Climate action, Responsible consumption and production, Industry, innovation and infrastructure

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $2,896