Work

Informing Strategic Planning Under Uncertainty: Using Rao’s Q Index on Scenario Rankings to Assess Landscape Stability and Vulnerability

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: Scenario planning supports strategic decision-making under uncertainty by comparing multiple plausible futures. Impact indicators help to prioritize scenarios, while rank-based evaluations clearly communicate indicator relevance for participatory planning, policymaking, and resource allocation. Ensuring that rankings are both sensitive and robust is therefore essential. However, conventional statistical measures fail to fully capture ranking dynamics. They describe overall dispersion but cannot jointly assess the magnitude of rank shifts and the frequency with which items occupy specific ranks across scenarios. This study explores the novel application of Rao’s Quadratic Entropy (Rao’s Q) in scenario analysis to quantify ranking variability. A theoretical test demonstrates that Rao’s Q captures full variability in rankings and continuous values, suggesting it as a promising alternative to existing approaches. Rao’s Q is then applied to a climate change hotspot in Central Italy to evaluate changes in bio-energy landscape connectivity across forty-eight scenarios. Results reveal how land-use and climate changes affect landscape unit connectivity over time, identifying which are highly stable across scenarios or consistently critical, and thus highlighting planning priorities for mitigation, conservation, and sustainable urban development. Supported by openly available R code, this study demonstrates the relevance of Rao’s Q for participatory, scenario-based decision-making processes.

Source: Land

DOI: 10.3390/land15020319