Work

A system dynamics model for evaluating tire wear particle mitigation strategies

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: Tire wear particles are a major source of microplastic emissions, making effective mitigation an urgent topic. Mitigation strategies are complex, as they involve multiple dimensions, trade-offs, and potential unintended consequences. To address this, we developed a system dynamics model to predict the environmental release of tire wear particles and evaluate the impact of intervention strategies, parameterized for the Netherlands. By including both key and secondary impact indicators, the model allows assessment not only of the environmental tire wear particle release but also of broader consequences such as road safety and carbon dioxide emissions. The model was constructed through a combination of literature review, expert consultation, and stakeholder engagement, which enhanced both the model structure and its practical relevance. Backcasting and validation confirmed its structural and behavioral soundness. Two hypothetical policy scenarios illustrate the model's ability to explore system-wide effects and identify effective interventions. Although developed for the Netherlands, the approach is transferable to other regions, providing a flexible tool for analyzing mitigation strategies. Methodologically, the study demonstrates how system dynamics can be applied to complex microplastic challenges by integrating technical modeling with social dimensions, such as mobility trends and driving behavior. In practice, the model can provide a foundation for stakeholders to systematically compare and evaluate tire wear particle mitigation strategies.

Source: Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management

DOI: 10.1093/inteam/vjag021

Authors: Sya Hoeke, Jikke van Wijnen, Harold Krikke, Ansje J Löhr, Ad M J Ragas

Institutions: Open University of the Netherlands, Radboud University Nijmegen

Language: English

Topic: Microplastics and Plastic Pollution

Subfield: Pollution

Field: Environmental Science

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDGs: Responsible consumption and production, Climate action, Sustainable cities and communities, Industry, innovation and infrastructure

Open Access status: hybrid

Estimated APC paid: $3,500