Work

Calculation of the extended probabilistic box of static voltage stability margin for a hybrid AC-DC power grid with renewables

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: High-order uncertainties arise in the cumulative distribution function parameters of wind speed and solar irradiance due to data gaps and statistical errors in renewable energy stations (RESs). To analyze their impact on the stochastic fluctuations of the static voltage stability margin (SVSM) in hybrid AC-DC power grids (HADPGs), a method for calculating the extended probability box (Ep-Box) of SVSM is proposed. The SVSM is first expressed in terms of the random variables of wind speed and solar irradiance using the stochastic response surface method. An approach combining the multidimensional change of variables theorem (MCVT) with auxiliary variables is then employed to derive the analytical Ep-Box expression, and an improved numerical scheme is introduced to enhance the efficiency of multiple integral computations. The resulting Ep-Box provides both the upper and lower bounds of the SVSM CDF and the probability density function (PDF) for SVSM falling below the security threshold, enabling accurate evaluation of static voltage instability risk. Case studies on a modified IEEE-39 bus system and an actual HADPG confirm that the proposed method achieves higher accuracy and computational efficiency than the double-layer Monte Carlo (DMC) sampling approach.

Source: International Journal of Electrical Power & Energy Systems

DOI: 10.1016/j.ijepes.2026.111681

Authors: Yunfeng Zhang, Shunjiang Lin, Wenfeng Yao, Yuerong Yang, Xuan Sheng, Mingbo Liu

Institutions: South China University of Technology, China Southern Power Grid (China)

Language: English

Topic: Power System Optimization and Stability

Subfield: Electrical and Electronic Engineering

Field: Engineering

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDGs: Affordable and clean energy, Industry, innovation and infrastructure

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $3,920