Work

Microsimulation of vehicle ownership decisions within an agent-based integrated urban model: An event-based hybrid of continuous and discrete simulation approach

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: This study presents vehicle ownership simulation (VOSim) within the STELARS (Simulator for Transportation, Energy, LAnd use for Regional System) framework. VOSim follows an event-based decision process adopting a hybrid of continuous and discrete time simulation techniques. In STELARS, each household agent subscribes to a list of events (e.g., childbirth) that makes the agent actively adjust his or her vehicle fleet. Being active, agents make two interconnected decisions: vehicle transaction and type choice. In the vehicle transaction stage, for households that never owned a vehicle, the timing of the first vehicle purchase decision is simulated. For households with vehicles, their decision to add, dispose, or replace a vehicle is simulated. In the vehicle type choice stage, an agent’s decision to choose vehicles by body, vintage, fuel, and technology type is simulated. Vehicle transaction is simulated as a continuous-time decision using a hazard-based model. Once the timing of the transaction is determined, the vehicle type choice simulation transitions into a discrete-time step. This paper reports VOSim predictions and multi-year validation for the Okanagan region in Canada for the 2011-2021 period. Multi-year validation results confirm a satisfactory accuracy level. Prediction results suggest that a higher proportion of first-time vehicle purchasers reside in areas with lower accessibility to transit. A higher share of suburban dwellers is predicted to own alternative fuel vehicles. Overall, the VOSim adds capacity to integrated urban models to simulate vehicle ownership using a behaviorally realistic simulation procedure and be sensitive to plans and policies through an equity lens, such as who makes the first vehicle purchase decision.

Source: Journal of Transport and Land Use

DOI: 10.5198/jtlu.2026.2665

Authors: Md Shahadat Hossain, Mahmudur Rahman Fatmi, Mohamad Ali Khalil

Institutions: University of British Columbia, Okanagan Campus, University of Alberta

Language: English

Topic: Transportation Planning and Optimization

Subfield: Transportation

Field: Social Sciences

Domain: Social Sciences

SDG: Sustainable cities and communities

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $750