Widespread increase in frequency and duration of European wind droughts based on CMIP6 projections
Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: The urgent need for long-term sustainable energy solutions to combat climate change has accelerated the deployment of renewable power technologies worldwide. Among these technologies, wind power has gained more attention due to its zero-carbon emission electricity and low costs. However, the availability and reliability of wind resources are subject to weather conditions and the potential impact of climate change. In this study, we use five model projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) forced with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 5-8.5 extreme high-emission-scenario to investigate the implications of changes in wind speed and extreme wind events (i.e., events of wind speeds outside the thresholds for power generation) across Europe for future wind energy projects. We adopt a model-level approach to estimate wind speeds at turbine hub heights and examine the potential changes in the frequency and duration of extreme wind events for power production in the Near-Future (2040–2059) and Far-Future (2080–2099).We find a notable and widespread increase in projected annual frequency of weak wind events of as much as 10-20% in some regions, with the most substantial increase in Western Europe – particularly over the United Kingdom. However, we find a decreasing winter frequency of weak wind events over Northern, Eastern, Central, and Western Europe, with concurrent increase in the duration of the events over Northern and Eastern Europe.Conversely, and with less model agreement than weak wind events, we find contrasting signals in the frequency of strong wind events, where the coastal southwest area of Portugal shows up to 90% decrease, while offshore regions of Northern Spain and southern North Sea show increases of up to 70 %. The duration of strong wind events is shown to increase in the offshore areas of Northern and Western Europe, with some variability in specific regions.Our analysis highlights the implications of changes in future extreme wind events for renewable energy planning, emphasizing the urgency of adaptive strategies to ensure the resilience of power systems in the face of changing climate conditions.
Source: iScience
Institution: University of Oslo
Language: English
Subfield: Aerospace Engineering
Field: Engineering
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $3,240
OpenAlex ID: W7130363026