Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: We investigated the interplay between climatic anomalies and economic fluctuations in early modern Japan (1603 - 1867), focusing on the Tenpō Famine of the 1830s. Specifically, we reconstructed solar radiation from 1821 to 1850 using descriptions from 18 historical diaries. This represents a novel approach to analyzing climatic impacts on agriculture and the economy during this period. The results suggest that reduced solar radiation, indicative of poor weather conditions, was followed by a substantial increase in rice prices, which rose to three to four times the normal level (from 50-70 to around 200). This rise occurred particularly during the summer of 1836, when solar radiation in July and August was approximately 10% below normal, and cold conditions persisted for three months. Applying principal component analysis to the reconstructed solar radiation data revealed spatiotemporal patterns that elucidated the link between climatic anomalies and their impacts on market prices during the Tenpō Famine. This indicates the sensitivity of market prices and economic stability to climate fluctuations. Using monthly rather than annual data, this study offers further evidence for the connections between climate, agriculture, and economic fluctuations. Our findings provide historical perspectives that could contribute to broader considerations in climate adaptation and policymaking. Additionally, this study suggests further research directions and encourages continued exploration of the relationship among climate change, agriculture, and economic fluctuations, inspiring future research in this field.
Source: Scientific Reports
Language: English
Subfield: Economics and Econometrics
Domain: Social Sciences
SDGs: Climate action, Zero hunger
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $2,690
Awards: G1239559062, G1795989517, Basic research for data-driven analysis of the early-modern Japanese economy: prices, wages, interest rates and money exchange rates, 日本近世中後期における領主階級の利殖活動―経済史・政治史・法制史の融合―, G5116230774, Reconstruction of the solar radiation with a high spatial and temporal resolution based on weather descriptions in historical diaries during the Edo era, Weather Anomalies and Their Impacts on Society in Japan around the Termination of the Little Ice Age, 歴史記録と観測記録の統合に基づく過去400年間の全天日射量変動の復元, Generation of Millennium Atmospheric Reanalysis Product, The Impact of Financial and Information Technology Innovations on Financial Markets: Evidence from Futures Trading and Flag Signaling in Early Modern Japan, Development of innovative data assimilation for reconstruction of weather and climate before 20th century, Improvement of paleoclimatic reconstruction since the early modern Little Ice Age by focusing on the degree of detailed description of historical daily weather record
OpenAlex ID: W7130404335