Work

Nowcasting GDP Growth for Kenya

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: This paper develops a nowcasting model to produce timely estimates of quarterly GDP growth for Kenya. Nowcasting combines official monthly indicators with digital transaction data. Exploiting strong co-movement of macroeconomic time series, a few latent factors summarize aggregate dynamics and enhance forecasts. The model is updated with each data release, decomposing revisions into predictable and news components. Results demonstrate robust performance of the nowcasting model in data-constrained environments and show that nowcasting is applicable to low-income countries

Source: IMF Working Paper

DOI: 10.5089/9798229038584.001

Authors: Nikolay Danov, Alain Kabundi, Domenico Giannone, Cedric Okou, Antonio Spilimbergo

Language: English

Topic: Forecasting Techniques and Applications

Subfield: Management Science and Operations Research

Field: Decision Sciences

Domain: Social Sciences

SDG: Decent work and economic growth

Open Access status: diamond

OpenAlex ID: W7130730792

FWCI:

Cites:

Cited by:

Related to: