The Game Between Quality Induction and Traffic Constraint: A Non-Linear Threshold Study of Park Travel Carbon Emissions from an Urban–Rural Differentiation Perspective
Year: 2026
Type: article
Abstract: As global decarbonization strategies pivot towards the burgeoning sector of recreational mobility, the tension between the attractive force of high-quality amenities and the constraining capacity of transport infrastructure in urban parks has emerged as a critical planning dilemma for high-density metropolises. To disentangle this game mechanism, this study proposes a integrated Dual-Diagnostic Framework that synthesizes a modified gravity model, Grouped OLS regression, and an explainable XGBoost-SHAP algorithm to identify non-linear thresholds under spatial heterogeneity. Leveraging empirical data from Tianjin, a representative high-density metropolis, the analysis reveals a distinct bimodal distribution of carbon emissions from travel to comprehensive parks, confirming a fundamental structural divergence between urban and suburban mobility patterns. Crucially, the non-linear diagnosis uncovers a dominant Facility Configuration Induction mechanism within the suburban interface; here, park scale acts as the primary driver of excess travel, with its induction effect often overriding the mitigation potential of public transit until a specific critical mass is achieved. Consequently, the results identify a rigid threshold for bus station density alongside optimal intervals for park scale, providing quantitative benchmarks and differentiated governance strategies to resolve the paradox between park quality and carbon intensity.
Source: Buildings
Institution: Tianjin University
Language: English
Subfield: Transportation
Field: Social Sciences
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $3,137
OpenAlex ID: W7130946604