Assessment of spatiotemporal changes in the carbon balance in the Sunzha river basin in connection with the transformation of land use
Year: 2025
Type: article
Abstract: Introduction. This study evaluates the spatio - temporal dynamics of carbon stocks in the Sunzha River basin (2017–2024) using the InVEST Carbon Storage and Sequestration model. The research is particularly relevant within the context of implementing Russia's climate strategy and the need to develop regional carbon balance mechanisms. The objective of the study is to quantify carbon stocks and analyze their dynamics within the Sunzha River basin using the InVEST software suite. Materials and Methods. The study was conducted using the InVEST model integrated with geospatial technologies (ArcGIS). Input data included land cover maps (ESRI Land Cover, Sentinel-2), biomass carbon density maps, and soil carbon stock data (SoilGrids250). Results. Analysis of ESRI Land Cover data in ArcGIS revealed a 7.8 % decrease in total carbon stocks over the study period due to land use and land cover change. Maximum carbon storage density (up to 150 t/ha) was recorded in forested areas, while the minimum values (<20 t/ha) were characteristic of urban zones. Key factors contributing to decarbonization included a reduction in tree cover (-9.2 %), expansion of agricultural lands (+9.6 %), and urban area growth (+14.7 %). Discussion. The spatial heterogeneity of carbon distribution correlates with the basin's unique geographical position and altitudinal zonation: mountain forests and subalpine meadows exhibit a higher carbon sequestration capacity compared to lowland landscapes. The degradation of natural landscapes, forest fragmentation, and direct anthropogenic impact are identified as primary causes of the reduced sequestration potential. Conclusion. It has been established that the spatial variability in carbon distribution is linked to geographical and topographic factors, with mountain forests and grasslands containing significantly higher carbon stocks than lowland areas. The degradation of natural landscapes, forest fragmentation, and anthropogenic transformation are the main drivers behind the decline in the basin's carbon storage capacity. Proposals for practical application and direction of future research. The results are applicable for developing regional climate action plans, optimizing spatial planning to minimize carbon footprint, assessing and forecasting ecosystem service dynamics, and creating a monitoring system to verify the effectiveness of climate projects under Russia's commitments to the Paris Agreement. Future research should focus on refining local carbon density coefficients, modeling future land - use change scenarios, and integrating the assessment with other ecosystem services (e.g., water regulation, soil conservation) for comprehensive spatial planning.
Language: English
Subfield: Global and Planetary Change
Field: Environmental Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: diamond
OpenAlex ID: W7133134902