Who succeeds and who fails? Comparing the impact of admissions and first-year performance on academic success
Year: 2026
Type: article
Study design: Observational Study
Abstract: The study provides new empirical evidence on the predictive validity of university admission procedures and early academic performance on long-term academic success. Focusing on a cohort of undergraduate students in Chemistry Education at Charles University (N = 111), we compared the predictive power of two types of admission tests, knowledge-based subject tests and a general aptitude test (GAP), contrasting them with first-year academic indicators. Results show that admission scores exhibit a moderate but statistically significant relationship with academic success (ρ = 0.40), with knowledge-based tests demonstrating higher predictive validity than GAP tests. However, first-year academic performance, particularly the number of credits earned, proved to be the strongest determinant of degree completion (e^β = 1.28; p = 0.046). Analysis of compulsory courses further revealed that Mathematics and Inorganic Chemistry II act as gateway courses predicting progression. The study highlights the limited long-term predictive value of admission examinations and the decisive role of the first study year in shaping academic trajectories. Integrating admission and early performance data can provide higher education institutions with rapid, evidence-based feedback for refining selection processes and developing targeted first-year support interventions.
Authors: Petr Distler, Martin Šrámek, Milada Teplá
Institutions: Charles University, Czech Technical University in Prague
Language: English
Subfield: Education
Field: Social Sciences
Domain: Social Sciences
SDG: Quality education
Open Access status: hybrid
OpenAlex ID: W7133770467