Work

Development and validation of a nomogram model based on inflammatory markers and cardiac parameters: predicting the risk of recurrence in patients with atrial fibrillation after radiofrequency catheter ablation

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to identify independent predictors of recurrence after catheter ablation for atrial fibrillation (AF) and develop a nomogram for individualized risk assessment. METHODS: Data from 516 AF patients undergoing first-time radiofrequency ablation between July 2020 and May 2025 were retrospectively analyzed. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression identified independent risk factors, with restricted cubic spline (RCS) analyzing dose-response relationships for continuous variables. Patients were divided into training and validation sets (7:3 ratio) via stratified random sampling. The nomogram was evaluated using the C-statistic, calibration plots, and decision curve analysis (DCA) for discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility. RESULTS: The nomogram incorporated left atrial diameter (LAD), left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), type of AF, D-dimer (DD), and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR). It demonstrated a C-index of 0.731. Calibration curves indicated strong agreement between predicted and observed outcomes, and DCA confirmed clinical net benefit within a 10%–50% threshold probability range. CONCLUSION: The nomogram provides accurate, individualized prediction of one-year post-ablation AF recurrence risk, facilitating early identification of high-risk patients and offering valuable prognostic insight.

Source: BMC Cardiovascular Disorders

DOI: 10.1186/s12872-026-05704-0